Katrina Impact:
New Orleans-Mobile Market Share Cut in Half.
Volume Plummets. Pricing Way Up.

In aftermath of Hurricane Katrina tragedy on Gulf Coast, many ponder impact on industry. Market -- consisting of New Orleans, Louisiana and Mobile, Alabama and environs -- holds relatively small share of overall CSD business in U.S. supermarkets. Before storm and flooding, that market held about 1.3 share of total U.S. supermarket CSD volume. In September, that dropped to 0.6. In contrast -- and for purposes of perspective -- NYC metro has about 5.0 share of total U.S. supermarket volume.

Cases. In September, overall CSD business in U.S. supermarkets was down -8.3%. That translates to a decline of about 20 mil cases. New Orleans-Mobile market was down -59.2% (table). That represents a decline of about 1.9 mil cases. So, putting it another way, a market which holds about 1.0 share of business accounted for about 10% of industry's total decline for month of September. Plus. One data point which deserves attention is increase in private label's share; in September, PL share up +4.6 on volume decline which was far less than overall category. Pricing. In September, CSD pricing in New Orleans-Mobile market was up significantly. For total category, pricing was up +13.1%, with Coke, Pepsi and Cadbury all up double-digit. In contrast, pricing in total U.S. was up +4.8%. These pricing increases in effected market, suggest industry observers, were likely due to significant decrease in promotional activity in region during month. PL pricing up much less, +6.9%.