A $4.99 unpromoted 12-pack of soda in the Atlanta suburbs used to be remarkable. Then came the $5.99 12-pack. Surely that had to be the ceiling, we thought. Now recently the $7.49 12- pack has emerged. There is no way prices can go even higher. Right?

We’ve written a lot in the last six months about unprecedented carbonated soft drink price elasticities. During the past decade or more in the US, the big soft drink makers refocused their growth metric from volume to value with a focus on revenue growth. That included new packaging and new thinking about the category. The expertise that came helped the industry navigate the challenges of a global pandemic and then runway cost inflation.

The ceiling, while moving ever higher, hasn’t disappeared, however. As we cover today on page 5, there are increasing questions about whether elasticities — and consumers — have been stretched to the max. This shouldn’t be a surprise. Rational observers know there is always a ceiling, even if the fingertips can’t quite touch in the dark.

Important is how the industry manages the inevitable and responds to changing behavior by consumers who feel less financially secure. Promotions are already trickling back to life and more could be on the way. Manufacturers will be forced to test how nimble they can be, especially as powerful retailers face pressures of their own and look to protect margins.

And none of this will happen in a vacuum. Massive consumer shifts, such as online meal delivery, will as always require the industry to lead a multi-pronged strategy to remain relevant and accessible no matter the price.