Coke Zero Sugar Passes Diet Pepsi in BD Retail Ranking. Pepsi Zero Sugar Surges.
Sprite Passes Diet Coke. KDP Nears Dollar Share Parity With PepsiCo in Supermarkets.

Work-at-home policies and a still unfolding return to pre-pandemic activity continued to buoy the US carbonated soft drink (CSD) market at retail during the first half of this year. As shown in the table with this story, category retail dollars grew +6.1%, bolstered by strong pricing gains (+7.0%) that offset declining volume (-0.8%). A pullback in promotions amid packaging supply shortages helped boost pricing. PepsiCo and Keurig Dr Pepper both outperformed the category and gained volume and dollar share. PepsiCo added +0.4 points of volume share and +0.2 points of dollar share. Alternatively, Coca-Cola lost volume (-0.1) and dollar (-0.3) share and underperformed the category on both measures.

METHODOLOGY. Quarterly, BD tracks multi-channel soda sales at retail from two data sets. The data are combined to present a snapshot of the industry during the first half of 2021. They cover supermarkets, c-stores, drug chains, mass merchandisers including Walmart, some dollar/club stores, and the military channel. The tables within this story show volume, dollar and pricing metrics by company or brand from the combined data set covering the same six-month period. The Green Sheet that accompanies this newsletter shows corporate and top-10 brand shares for the combined data sets, plus breakouts for major channels.

ZERO SUGAR COLA BATTLE. Coca-Cola Zero Sugar continued to grow and gain share during the first half of this year (Green Sheet). In fact, the brand passed Diet Pepsi in BD’s dollar share CSD rankings for the period. Some Diet Pepsi volume has likely transferred to Pepsi Zero Sugar, which has been an increasing focus by PepsiCo. As shown in the head-to-head table with this story, Pepsi Zero Sugar outperformed Coca-Cola Zero Sugar by both volume and dollar sales. It should be noted that Pepsi Zero Sugar ended the period with a quarter of the share of Coke Zero Sugar. Coca-Cola recently introduced a new formula, graphics, and marketing for Coke Zero Sugar in the US following similar launches globally. The new attention for the brand could help stave off the challenge by Pepsi Zero Sugar.

SPRITE PASSES DIET COKE. Sprite’s strong dollar sales and share gains carried the brand past Diet Coke. Even before the pandemic, Sprite benefitted from a growing multicultural consumer base in the US and marketing focused on sports and culture. Diet Coke, meanwhile, is in a state of long-term decline as consumers gravitate to “zero sugar” products and the brand’s loyal consumer base ages. While marketing aimed at younger consumers and the introduction of modern flavors such as Twisted Mango and Ginger Lime have blunted Diet Coke’s downtrend in recent years, the brand continues to lose share.

CHANNELS. In the supermarket channel, Keurig Dr Pepper was at near parity to PepsiCo from a dollar share perspective, even as KDP lagged PepsiCo by 2.0 volume share points (see Green Sheet). KDP, which outperformed Coca-Cola and PepsiCo in the channel, was helped by a strong platform of flavored CSDs at a time when other companies pared back flavor assortments to keep up with demand for core products.